You're reading...
Market News and Trends

Another look at Austin/Central Texas home prices


I have commented recently on the strength of property values in the Austin/Central Texas market.  Here’s another look at that data (through November 2010):

Graph: Rolling Average Prices 2005-2010

Seasonality is apparent in the Monthly Average and 3-Month Rolling Average price bars, so it is clear that average price increases during Spring and Summer, followed by declining prices in the September to November period are not unique to 2010.  Obviously, the homebuyer tax credit program that expired at the end of June 2010 greatly exaggerated the changes during the 2nd quarter of 2010.  Recent news reports have highlighted the month-to-month average price erosion over the past couple of months, but notice the earlier peak that recent months are compared to.

To me, the really interesting feature of this graph is the 12-Month Rolling Average.  That line filters out the seasonality and allows us to see longer term trends.  That line has been basically flat or heading upward for 13 months, since October 2009.  Moreover, in November 2010 the 12-Month Rolling Average Sale Price was at an all-time high!  I haven’t seen that reported anywhere else.

Now, before jumping to the conclusion that boom time is here again, note that this is not because of general increases in the value of specific property types or market segments, although we did see that happen from 2005 to 2007 and early 2008.  More recently, the market average price has been influenced more by a shift in the percentage of sales toward higher price ranges.  I have made that comment before, but for a more detailed look this table is helpful:

Market Price Distribution 2005-2010

I have highlighted price ranges in each year that represented 10% or more of total sales in that year.  Notice the steady decline in the $100,000 to $140,000 segments.  Also, look at the increases in the $200,000-$250,000 (up 33% since 2005) and $300,000-$400,000 (up 45%) price ranges, and the even more impressive growth in the over-$500,000 segment — up more than 50% from 2005 to 2010!
 
While individual Austin-area homeowners have not generally seen their property values increase since the housing downturn and mortgage crisis began, a larger percentage of homebuyers have moved into much higher price ranges.  That’s a real testament to the underlying strength of the Austin economy, continuing to create jobs locally and to attract corporate relocations while holding wages up — a very different experience than the areas that have featured so prominently in national news.

As always, my Austin Market Dashboard is updated monthly with graphs and commentary about the state of our real estate market.  I will have final November results incorporated there just after Christmas.

Advertisements

About Bill Morris, Realtor

More than thirty years of business experience (high tech, client service, business organization and start-up, including many years in real estate) tell me that service is the key to success and I look forward to serving you. I represent both buyers and sellers throughout the Austin metropolitan area, which means first-hand market knowledge is brought to bear on serving your needs: -- Seller Representation is a comprehensive process that begins with thorough market analysis and consultation, continues with properly staging the home to achieve the highest price possible in a reasonable time on market, a complete program of marketing and promotion, ongoing updates and communication, closing coordination, and follow-up throughout (and after) the sale. -- Buyer Representation is also full service: shopping, previewing, price and market consultation, contracting, negotiating, coordination of inspections, appraisals, repairs, and closing details, and follow-up beyond the closing of your purchase to ensure your lasting satisfaction. Because the real estate industry is becoming more sophisticated and challenging every day, you need a professional that understands the industry and is positioned to stay ahead of the game. I go the extra mile to help you achieve your goals. That's why I constantly research the market and property values so your home is priced effectively from day one. I also make sure the public knows your home is for sale by using innovative advertising and marketing techniques to attract potential buyers.

Discussion

One thought on “Another look at Austin/Central Texas home prices

  1. Bill that is a great chart. I’d like to see it done for zips where prices are high so you can adjust for the shift to higher priced homes. I’d also like to see number of sales plotted next to the data.

    Posted by Mr Bubble | December 30, 2010, 11:17 PM

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: